NFL Pick'em 2026
week 4 · updated 2026-09-30 17:41 UTC · manual entry only
257
Season points
? / ?
Rank
274
Leader
17
Deficit
chalk
Regime · 1.13/wk
15
Weeks left
ALIVE
Survivor
Week 4 card chalk regime
lines 2026-09-30 17:41 UTC · Sunday games lock 1:00 PM ET
Thursday 8:15 PM
PIT @ CLE
58%locks Thu 10/01 8:15 PM
PIT
6
Sunday 9:30 AM
IND @ WAS
64%locks Sun 10/04 9:30 AM
IND
10
Sunday 1:00 PM
ARI @ NYG
54%
ARI
1
DAL @ HOU
58%
HOU
4
GB @ TB
63%
GB
9
JAX @ CIN
57%
CIN
2
LAR @ PHI
60%
LAR
7
NE @ BUF
74%
BUF
13
NYJ @ CHI
62%
CHI
8
TEN @ BAL
86%
BAL
16
Sunday 4:05 PM
MIA @ MIN
85%
MIN
15
Sunday 4:25 PM
DEN @ SF
58%
SF
3
KC @ LV
66%
KC
12
LAC @ SEA
76%
SEA
14
Sunday 8:20 PM
DET @ CAR
64%
DET
11
Monday 8:15 PM
ATL @ NO
58%
NO
5
TEN @ BAL
86%
BAL
16
MIA @ MIN
85%
MIN
15
LAC @ SEA
76%
SEA
14
NE @ BUF
74%
BUF
13
KC @ LV
66%
KC
12
DET @ CAR
64%
DET
11
IND @ WAS
64%locks Sun 10/04 9:30 AM
IND
10
GB @ TB
63%
GB
9
NYJ @ CHI
62%
CHI
8
LAR @ PHI
60%
LAR
7
PIT @ CLE
58%locks Thu 10/01 8:15 PM
PIT
6
ATL @ NO
58%
NO
5
DAL @ HOU
58%
HOU
4
DEN @ SF
58%
SF
3
JAX @ CIN
57%
CIN
2
ARI @ NYG
54%
ARI
1
Flags
coin-flip conf 1 ARI: favorite only 54.0%; near toss-up (swap allowed (outside top 12))
early-lock conf 6 PIT: locks at kickoff Thu 10/01 8:15 PM ET (before the Sunday 1:00 PM ET deadline) (NO SWAP: top-12 protected slot)
early-lock conf 10 IND: locks at kickoff Sun 10/04 9:30 AM ET (before the Sunday 1:00 PM ET deadline) (NO SWAP: top-12 protected slot)
Survivor ALIVE
BAL
BAL vs TEN
86% to win · about 18% of the pool on them
Sun 10/04 1:00 PM ET
plan
wk5NE64%
wk6LAR68%
wk7HOU65%
wk8CIN66%
wk9SEA67%
wk10IND66%
wk11BUF75%
wk12MIN61%
wk13DEN71%
- BAL vs TEN: win prob 86.1%, expected pool share on them 18% [model (beta=0.54, gamma=0.35, 2 wk of data)]
- if they win, ~77% of the pool survives -> equity +0.112 (log p - log surviving)
- burning BAL costs the future plan 0.000 (horizon: pool of 33 at 23%/wk attrition, weights fall to 0 around week 14)
- runner-up MIN is -0.094 behind (log-equity units; -0.05 ≈ 5% less pool equity)
| team | opp | win | pool on | vs best | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL | vs TEN | 86.1% | 18% | +0.000 | |
| MIN | vs MIA | 84.9% | 51% | -0.094 | |
| SEA | vs LAC | 76.3% | 3% | -0.103 | |
| BUF | vs NE | 73.7% | 2% | -0.225 | |
| DET | @ CAR | 64.2% | 1% | -0.263 | |
| GB | @ TB | 63.4% | 1% | -0.278 | |
| CHI | vs NYJ | 62.3% | 2% | -0.297 | |
| IND | @ WAS | 63.9% | 2% | -0.316 |
Season points
Rank (lower is better)
Weekly results
| week | pts | W-L | rank | deficit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| wk1 | 96 | 10-6 | 35 | 17 |
| wk2 | 86 | 11-5 | 33 | 17 |
| wk3 | 75 | 8-8 | 17 |
Points lost by confidence slot
Survivor — ALIVE
ARI
ATL
BAL
BUF
CAR
CHI
CIN
CLE
DAL
DEN
DET
GB
HOU
IND
JAX
KC
LAC
LAR
LV
MIA
MIN
NE
NO
NYG
NYJ
PHI
PIT
SEA
SF
TB
TEN
WAS
strikethrough = used · outlined = planned
| week | used |
|---|---|
| wk1 | JAX |
| wk2 | SF |
| wk3 | KC |
Survivor season plan
| week | team | opp | p | P(pool running) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| wk5 | NE | vs LV | 64% | 1.00 |
| wk6 | LAR | vs ARI | 68% | 1.00 |
| wk7 | HOU | vs NYG | 65% | 1.00 |
| wk8 | CIN | vs TEN | 66% | 1.00 |
| wk9 | SEA | vs ARI | 67% | 1.00 |
| wk10 | IND | vs MIA | 66% | 1.00 |
| wk11 | BUF | vs MIA | 75% | 0.80 |
| wk12 | MIN | vs ATL | 61% | 0.39 |
| wk13 | DEN | vs MIA | 71% | 0.07 |
Field picks — week 2 58 entries
5 of 16 games went against the pool's majority; 4 of 12 games with an 85%+ consensus lost.
| game | field pick | share | n | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO@BAL | BAL | 100% | 58/58 | field upset |
| PHI@TEN | PHI | 100% | 58/58 | chalk won |
| MIA@SF | SF | 100% | 58/58 | chalk won |
| CLE@TB | TB | 98% | 57/58 | field upset |
| DET@BUF | BUF | 97% | 56/58 | chalk won |
| MIN@CHI | CHI | 97% | 56/58 | field upset |
| PIT@NE | NE | 97% | 56/58 | chalk won |
| LV@LAC | LAC | 97% | 56/58 | field upset |
| IND@KC | KC | 97% | 56/58 | chalk won |
| SEA@ARI | SEA | 90% | 52/58 | chalk won |
| NYG@LAR | LAR | 90% | 52/58 | chalk won |
| WAS@DAL | DAL | 86% | 50/58 | chalk won |
| GB@NYJ | GB | 84% | 49/58 | chalk won |
| CAR@ATL | CAR | 76% | 44/58 | chalk won |
| CIN@HOU | HOU | 74% | 43/58 | field upset |
| JAX@DEN | DEN | 57% | 33/58 | chalk won |
Survivor pool
33 of 63 alive · attrition 23%/wk · planning horizon fades out by week 14
week 2 picks 27 eliminated
| team | picks | share | line | res |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB | 26 | 43.3% | -8.5 | L |
| SF | 12 | 20.0% | -13.5 | W |
| LAC | 6 | 10.0% | -6.5 | L |
| BAL | 4 | 6.7% | -8.5 | L |
| CAR | 3 | 5.0% | -2.5 | W |
| PHI | 2 | 3.3% | -7.0 | W |
| GB | 2 | 3.3% | -3.5 | W |
| DAL | 2 | 3.3% | -4.5 | W |
| BUF | 1 | 1.7% | -4.5 | W |
| CHI | 1 | 1.7% | -4.5 | L |
| KC | 1 | 1.7% | -6.5 | W |
popularity model: model (beta=0.54, gamma=0.35, 2 wk of data)