NFL Pick'em 2026
week 3 · updated 2026-09-24 21:50 UTC · manual entry only
182
Season points
33 / 58
Rank
199
Leader
17
Deficit
chalk
Regime · 1.06/wk
16
Weeks left
33%
P(top 3) · chalk
ALIVE
Survivor
Week 3 card chalk regime
lines 2026-09-24 21:50 UTC · Sunday games lock 1:00 PM ET
Thursday 8:15 PM
ATL @ GB
70%locks Thu 09/24 8:15 PM
GB
11
Sunday 1:00 PM
CAR @ CLE
57%
CAR
5
CIN @ PIT
64%
CIN
9
HOU @ IND
54%
HOU
2
KC @ MIA
86%
KC
16
LAC @ BUF
76%
BUF
13
NE @ JAX
59%
JAX
6
NYJ @ DET
74%
DET
12
SEA @ WAS
77%
SEA
14
TEN @ NYG
56%
NYG
4
Sunday 4:05 PM
ARI @ SF
80%
SF
15
MIN @ TB
53%
MIN
1
Sunday 4:25 PM
BAL @ DAL
63%
BAL
8
LV @ NO
62%
NO
7
Sunday 8:20 PM
LAR @ DEN
56%
LAR
3
Monday 8:15 PM
PHI @ CHI
68%
PHI
10
KC @ MIA
86%
KC
16
ARI @ SF
80%
SF
15
SEA @ WAS
77%
SEA
14
LAC @ BUF
76%
BUF
13
NYJ @ DET
74%
DET
12
ATL @ GB
70%locks Thu 09/24 8:15 PM
GB
11
PHI @ CHI
68%
PHI
10
CIN @ PIT
64%
CIN
9
BAL @ DAL
63%
BAL
8
LV @ NO
62%
NO
7
NE @ JAX
59%
JAX
6
CAR @ CLE
57%
CAR
5
TEN @ NYG
56%
NYG
4
LAR @ DEN
56%
LAR
3
HOU @ IND
54%
HOU
2
MIN @ TB
53%
MIN
1
Flags
coin-flip conf 1 MIN: favorite only 53.1%; near toss-up (swap allowed (outside top 12))
coin-flip conf 2 HOU: favorite only 53.9%; near toss-up (swap allowed (outside top 12))
line-move conf 2 HOU: pick prob moved -4.0% since last snapshot, home spread -1.5 (swap allowed (outside top 12))
early-lock conf 11 GB: locks at kickoff Thu 09/24 8:15 PM ET (before the Sunday 1:00 PM ET deadline) (NO SWAP: top-12 protected slot)
Survivor ALIVE
KC
KC @ MIA
86% to win · about 28% of the pool on them
Sun 09/27 1:00 PM ET
plan
wk4BAL71%
wk5NE64%
wk6LAR69%
wk7HOU64%
wk8CIN64%
wk9PHI68%
wk10IND64%
wk11BUF74%
wk12MIN60%
- KC @ MIA: win prob 85.9%, expected pool share on them 28% [model (beta=0.54, gamma=0.35, 2 wk of data)]
- if they win, ~72% of the pool survives -> equity +0.183 (log p - log surviving)
- burning KC costs the future plan 0.029 (horizon: pool of 33 at 23%/wk attrition, weights fall to 0 around week 13)
- runner-up SEA is -0.054 behind (log-equity units; -0.05 ≈ 5% less pool equity)
| team | opp | win | pool on | vs best | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC | @ MIA | 85.9% | 28% | +0.000 | |
| SEA | @ WAS | 76.9% | 8% | -0.054 | |
| DET | vs NYJ | 73.7% | 5% | -0.086 | |
| BUF | vs LAC | 76.1% | 5% | -0.098 | |
| GB | vs ATL | 69.6% | 3% | -0.138 | |
| PHI | @ CHI | 68.0% | 1% | -0.158 | |
| CIN | @ PIT | 63.7% | 3% | -0.245 | |
| NO | vs LV | 61.9% | 7% | -0.279 |
Season points
Rank (lower is better)
Weekly results
| week | pts | W-L | rank | deficit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| wk1 | 96 | 10-6 | 35 | 17 |
| wk2 | 86 | 11-5 | 33 | 17 |
Points lost by confidence slot
Survivor — ALIVE
ARI
ATL
BAL
BUF
CAR
CHI
CIN
CLE
DAL
DEN
DET
GB
HOU
IND
JAX
KC
LAC
LAR
LV
MIA
MIN
NE
NO
NYG
NYJ
PHI
PIT
SEA
SF
TB
TEN
WAS
strikethrough = used · outlined = planned
| week | used |
|---|---|
| wk1 | JAX |
| wk2 | SF |
Survivor season plan
| week | team | opp | p | P(pool running) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| wk4 | BAL | vs TEN | 71% | 1.00 |
| wk5 | NE | vs LV | 64% | 1.00 |
| wk6 | LAR | vs ARI | 69% | 1.00 |
| wk7 | HOU | vs NYG | 64% | 1.00 |
| wk8 | CIN | vs TEN | 64% | 1.00 |
| wk9 | PHI | vs NYG | 68% | 1.00 |
| wk10 | IND | vs MIA | 64% | 0.80 |
| wk11 | BUF | vs MIA | 74% | 0.39 |
| wk12 | MIN | vs ATL | 60% | 0.07 |
Field picks — week 2 58 entries
5 of 16 games went against the pool's majority; 4 of 12 games with an 85%+ consensus lost.
| game | field pick | share | n | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO@BAL | BAL | 100% | 58/58 | field upset |
| PHI@TEN | PHI | 100% | 58/58 | chalk won |
| MIA@SF | SF | 100% | 58/58 | chalk won |
| CLE@TB | TB | 98% | 57/58 | field upset |
| DET@BUF | BUF | 97% | 56/58 | chalk won |
| MIN@CHI | CHI | 97% | 56/58 | field upset |
| PIT@NE | NE | 97% | 56/58 | chalk won |
| LV@LAC | LAC | 97% | 56/58 | field upset |
| IND@KC | KC | 97% | 56/58 | chalk won |
| SEA@ARI | SEA | 90% | 52/58 | chalk won |
| NYG@LAR | LAR | 90% | 52/58 | chalk won |
| WAS@DAL | DAL | 86% | 50/58 | chalk won |
| GB@NYJ | GB | 84% | 49/58 | chalk won |
| CAR@ATL | CAR | 76% | 44/58 | chalk won |
| CIN@HOU | HOU | 74% | 43/58 | field upset |
| JAX@DEN | DEN | 57% | 33/58 | chalk won |
Survivor pool
33 of 63 alive · attrition 23%/wk · planning horizon fades out by week 13
week 2 picks 27 eliminated
| team | picks | share | line | res |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB | 26 | 43.3% | -8.5 | L |
| SF | 12 | 20.0% | -13.5 | W |
| LAC | 6 | 10.0% | -6.5 | L |
| BAL | 4 | 6.7% | -8.5 | L |
| CAR | 3 | 5.0% | -2.5 | W |
| PHI | 2 | 3.3% | -7.0 | W |
| GB | 2 | 3.3% | -3.5 | W |
| DAL | 2 | 3.3% | -4.5 | W |
| BUF | 1 | 1.7% | -4.5 | W |
| CHI | 1 | 1.7% | -4.5 | L |
| KC | 1 | 1.7% | -6.5 | W |
popularity model: model (beta=0.54, gamma=0.35, 2 wk of data)