NFL Pick'em 2026
week 3 · updated 2026-09-22 18:33 UTC · manual entry only
182
Season points
33 / 58
Rank
199
Leader
17
Deficit
chalk
Regime · 1.06/wk
16
Weeks left
47%
P(top 3) · chalk
ALIVE
Survivor
Week 2 card chalk regime
lines 2026-09-20 15:37 UTC · Sunday games lock 1:00 PM ET
Thursday 8:15 PM
DET @ BUF
68%locks Thu 09/17 8:15 PM
BUF
7
W
Sunday 1:00 PM
CAR @ ATL
58%
CAR
1
W
CIN @ HOU
58%
HOU
2
L
CLE @ TB
80%
TB
15
L
GB @ NYJ
62%
GB
4
W
MIN @ CHI
67%
CHI
8
L
NO @ BAL
79%
BAL
14
L
PHI @ TEN
76%
PHI
13
W
PIT @ NE
69%
NE
9
W
Sunday 4:05 PM
JAX @ DEN
58%
DEN
3
W
LV @ LAC
74%
LAC
11
L
Sunday 4:25 PM
MIA @ SF
90%
SF
16
W
SEA @ ARI
66%
SEA
5
W
WAS @ DAL
66%
DAL
6
W
Sunday 8:20 PM
IND @ KC
72%
KC
10
W
Monday 8:15 PM
NYG @ LAR
75%
LAR
12
W
MIA @ SF
90%
SF
16
W
CLE @ TB
80%
TB
15
L
NO @ BAL
79%
BAL
14
L
PHI @ TEN
76%
PHI
13
W
NYG @ LAR
75%
LAR
12
W
LV @ LAC
74%
LAC
11
L
IND @ KC
72%
KC
10
W
PIT @ NE
69%
NE
9
W
MIN @ CHI
67%
CHI
8
L
DET @ BUF
68%locks Thu 09/17 8:15 PM
BUF
7
W
WAS @ DAL
66%
DAL
6
W
SEA @ ARI
66%
SEA
5
W
GB @ NYJ
62%
GB
4
W
JAX @ DEN
58%
DEN
3
W
CIN @ HOU
58%
HOU
2
L
CAR @ ATL
58%
CAR
1
W
Flags
early-lock conf 7 BUF: locks at kickoff Thu 09/17 8:15 PM ET (before the Sunday 1:00 PM ET deadline) (NO SWAP: top-12 protected slot)
Survivor ALIVE
PHI
PHI @ TEN
76% to win · about 3% of the pool on them
Sun 09/20 1:00 PM ET
plan
wk3DET67%
wk4BAL69%
wk5NE66%
wk6LAR68%
wk7HOU62%
wk8TB64%
wk9KC68%
wk10BUF64%
wk11LAC66%
- PHI @ TEN: win prob 76.0%, expected pool share on them 3% [actual (stats page)]
- if they win, ~79% of the pool survives -> equity -0.040 (log p - log surviving)
- burning PHI costs the future plan 0.000 (horizon: pool of 33 at 23%/wk attrition, weights fall to 0 around week 12)
- highest raw win prob is TB 79.6% but popularity/future cost puts it -0.067 behind
- runner-up BAL is -0.038 behind (log-equity units; -0.05 ≈ 5% less pool equity)
| team | opp | win | pool on | vs best | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | @ TEN | 76.0% | 3% | +0.000 | |
| BAL | vs NO | 79.4% | 7% | -0.038 | |
| LAC | vs LV | 73.9% | 10% | -0.051 | |
| TB | vs CLE | 79.6% | 43% | -0.067 | |
| KC | vs IND | 72.1% | 2% | -0.074 | |
| LAR | vs NYG | 74.9% | 0% | -0.087 | |
| BUF | vs DET | 68.1% | 2% | -0.115 | |
| CHI | vs MIN | 66.9% | 2% | -0.124 |
Season points
Rank (lower is better)
Weekly results
| week | pts | W-L | rank | deficit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| wk1 | 96 | 10-6 | 35 | 17 |
| wk2 | 86 | 11-5 | 33 | 17 |
Points lost by confidence slot
Survivor — ALIVE
ARI
ATL
BAL
BUF
CAR
CHI
CIN
CLE
DAL
DEN
DET
GB
HOU
IND
JAX
KC
LAC
LAR
LV
MIA
MIN
NE
NO
NYG
NYJ
PHI
PIT
SEA
SF
TB
TEN
WAS
strikethrough = used · outlined = planned
| week | used |
|---|---|
| wk1 | JAX |
| wk2 | SF |
Survivor season plan
| week | team | opp | p | P(pool running) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| wk3 | DET | vs NYJ | 67% | 1.00 |
| wk4 | BAL | vs TEN | 69% | 1.00 |
| wk5 | NE | vs LV | 66% | 1.00 |
| wk6 | LAR | vs ARI | 68% | 1.00 |
| wk7 | HOU | vs NYG | 62% | 1.00 |
| wk8 | TB | vs ATL | 64% | 1.00 |
| wk9 | KC | vs NYJ | 68% | 0.80 |
| wk10 | BUF | @ NYJ | 64% | 0.39 |
| wk11 | LAC | vs NYJ | 66% | 0.07 |
Field picks — week 2 58 entries
5 of 16 games went against the pool's majority; 4 of 12 games with an 85%+ consensus lost.
| game | field pick | share | n | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO@BAL | BAL | 100% | 58/58 | field upset |
| PHI@TEN | PHI | 100% | 58/58 | chalk won |
| MIA@SF | SF | 100% | 58/58 | chalk won |
| CLE@TB | TB | 98% | 57/58 | field upset |
| DET@BUF | BUF | 97% | 56/58 | chalk won |
| MIN@CHI | CHI | 97% | 56/58 | field upset |
| PIT@NE | NE | 97% | 56/58 | chalk won |
| LV@LAC | LAC | 97% | 56/58 | field upset |
| IND@KC | KC | 97% | 56/58 | chalk won |
| SEA@ARI | SEA | 90% | 52/58 | chalk won |
| NYG@LAR | LAR | 90% | 52/58 | chalk won |
| WAS@DAL | DAL | 86% | 50/58 | chalk won |
| GB@NYJ | GB | 84% | 49/58 | chalk won |
| CAR@ATL | CAR | 76% | 44/58 | chalk won |
| CIN@HOU | HOU | 74% | 43/58 | field upset |
| JAX@DEN | DEN | 57% | 33/58 | chalk won |
Survivor pool
33 of 63 alive · attrition 23%/wk · planning horizon fades out by week 12
week 2 picks 27 eliminated
| team | picks | share | line | res |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB | 26 | 43.3% | -8.5 | L |
| SF | 12 | 20.0% | -13.5 | W |
| LAC | 6 | 10.0% | -6.5 | L |
| BAL | 4 | 6.7% | -8.5 | L |
| CAR | 3 | 5.0% | -2.5 | W |
| PHI | 2 | 3.3% | -7.0 | W |
| GB | 2 | 3.3% | -3.5 | W |
| DAL | 2 | 3.3% | -4.5 | W |
| BUF | 1 | 1.7% | -4.5 | W |
| CHI | 1 | 1.7% | -4.5 | L |
| KC | 1 | 1.7% | -6.5 | W |
popularity model: actual (stats page)