NFL Pick'em 2026
week 2 · updated 2026-09-16 16:16 UTC · manual entry only
96
Season points
35 / 58
Rank
113
Leader
17
Deficit
chalk
Regime · 1.00/wk
17
Weeks left
ALIVE
Survivor
Week 2 card chalk regime
lines 2026-09-16 16:16 UTC · Sunday games lock 1:00 PM ET
Thursday 8:15 PM
DET @ BUF
68%locks Thu 09/17 8:15 PM
BUF
7
Sunday 1:00 PM
CAR @ ATL
57%
CAR
1
CIN @ HOU
58%
HOU
3
CLE @ TB
79%
TB
15
GB @ NYJ
63%
GB
4
MIN @ CHI
69%
CHI
8
NO @ BAL
79%
BAL
14
PHI @ TEN
76%
PHI
12
PIT @ NE
69%
NE
9
Sunday 4:05 PM
JAX @ DEN
58%
DEN
2
LV @ LAC
73%
LAC
10
Sunday 4:25 PM
MIA @ SF
90%
SF
16
SEA @ ARI
65%
SEA
5
WAS @ DAL
66%
DAL
6
Sunday 8:20 PM
IND @ KC
74%
KC
11
Monday 8:15 PM
NYG @ LAR
76%
LAR
13
MIA @ SF
90%
SF
16
CLE @ TB
79%
TB
15
NO @ BAL
79%
BAL
14
NYG @ LAR
76%
LAR
13
PHI @ TEN
76%
PHI
12
IND @ KC
74%
KC
11
LV @ LAC
73%
LAC
10
PIT @ NE
69%
NE
9
MIN @ CHI
69%
CHI
8
DET @ BUF
68%locks Thu 09/17 8:15 PM
BUF
7
WAS @ DAL
66%
DAL
6
SEA @ ARI
65%
SEA
5
GB @ NYJ
63%
GB
4
CIN @ HOU
58%
HOU
3
JAX @ DEN
58%
DEN
2
CAR @ ATL
57%
CAR
1
Flags
early-lock conf 7 BUF: locks at kickoff Thu 09/17 8:15 PM ET (before the Sunday 1:00 PM ET deadline) (NO SWAP: top-12 protected slot)
Survivor ALIVE
SF
SF vs MIA
90% to win · about 25% of the pool on them
Sun 09/20 4:25 PM ET
plan
wk3DET68%
wk4BAL70%
wk5NE64%
wk6LAR68%
wk7HOU62%
wk8PIT65%
wk9KC69%
wk10IND62%
wk11BUF72%
wk12CIN61%
wk13DEN69%
wk14SEA66%
- SF vs MIA: win prob 89.8%, expected pool share on them 25% [model (beta=0.5, gamma=0.3, 1 wk of data)]
- if they win, ~75% of the pool survives -> equity +0.176 (log p - log surviving)
- burning SF costs the future plan 0.000 (horizon: pool of 50 at 19%/wk attrition, weights fall to 0 around week 16)
- runner-up PHI is -0.145 behind (log-equity units; -0.05 ≈ 5% less pool equity)
| team | opp | win | pool on | vs best | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF | vs MIA | 89.8% | 25% | +0.000 | |
| PHI | @ TEN | 75.8% | 4% | -0.145 | |
| TB | vs CLE | 79.3% | 22% | -0.147 | |
| LAR | vs NYG | 76.0% | 3% | -0.177 | |
| LAC | vs LV | 73.1% | 5% | -0.188 | |
| BAL | vs NO | 79.0% | 10% | -0.191 | |
| KC | vs IND | 73.6% | 4% | -0.215 | |
| CHI | vs MIN | 68.7% | 4% | -0.250 |
Season points
Rank (lower is better)
Weekly results
| week | pts | W-L | rank | deficit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| wk1 | 96 | 10-6 | 35 | 17 |
Points lost by confidence slot
Survivor — ALIVE
ARI
ATL
BAL
BUF
CAR
CHI
CIN
CLE
DAL
DEN
DET
GB
HOU
IND
JAX
KC
LAC
LAR
LV
MIA
MIN
NE
NO
NYG
NYJ
PHI
PIT
SEA
SF
TB
TEN
WAS
strikethrough = used · outlined = planned
| week | used |
|---|---|
| wk1 | JAX |
Survivor season plan
| week | team | opp | p | P(pool running) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| wk3 | DET | vs NYJ | 68% | 1.00 |
| wk4 | BAL | vs TEN | 70% | 1.00 |
| wk5 | NE | vs LV | 64% | 1.00 |
| wk6 | LAR | vs ARI | 68% | 1.00 |
| wk7 | HOU | vs NYG | 62% | 1.00 |
| wk8 | PIT | vs CLE | 65% | 1.00 |
| wk9 | KC | vs NYJ | 69% | 1.00 |
| wk10 | IND | vs MIA | 62% | 1.00 |
| wk11 | BUF | vs MIA | 72% | 1.00 |
| wk12 | CIN | vs NO | 61% | 1.00 |
| wk13 | DEN | vs MIA | 69% | 0.67 |
| wk14 | SEA | vs NYG | 66% | 0.35 |
| wk15 | GB | vs MIA | 67% | 0.10 |
Field picks — week 1 58 entries
4 of 16 games went against the pool's majority; 3 of 11 games with an 85%+ consensus lost.
| game | field pick | share | n | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE@JAX | JAX | 98% | 57/58 | chalk won |
| NO@DET | DET | 98% | 57/58 | chalk won |
| ARI@LAC | LAC | 97% | 56/58 | field upset |
| WAS@PHI | PHI | 97% | 56/58 | chalk won |
| ATL@PIT | PIT | 95% | 55/58 | chalk won |
| CHI@CAR | CHI | 93% | 54/58 | chalk won |
| MIA@LV | LV | 93% | 54/58 | chalk won |
| SF@LAR | LAR | 93% | 52/56 | field upset |
| BAL@IND | BAL | 91% | 53/58 | chalk won |
| DAL@NYG | DAL | 86% | 50/58 | field upset |
| NE@SEA | SEA | 86% | 48/56 | chalk won |
| TB@CIN | CIN | 84% | 49/58 | chalk won |
| BUF@HOU | BUF | 81% | 47/58 | chalk won |
| NYJ@TEN | TEN | 71% | 41/58 | field upset |
| DEN@KC | KC | 55% | 32/58 | chalk won |
| GB@MIN | MIN | 53% | 31/58 | chalk won |
Survivor pool
50 of 63 alive · attrition 19%/wk · planning horizon fades out by week 16
week 1 picks 13 eliminated
| team | picks | share | line | res |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JAX | 18 | 28.6% | -8.5 | W |
| DET | 10 | 15.9% | -6.5 | W |
| LAC | 8 | 12.7% | -9.5 | L |
| PIT | 8 | 12.7% | -5.5 | W |
| LV | 7 | 11.1% | -3.0 | W |
| TEN | 4 | 6.3% | -1.5 | L |
| PHI | 3 | 4.8% | -5.5 | W |
| MIN | 1 | 1.6% | -1.5 | W |
| CIN | 1 | 1.6% | -3.5 | W |
| SEA | 1 | 1.6% | -3.5 | W |
| NYJ | 1 | 1.6% | +1.5 | W |
| NO | 1 | 1.6% | +6.5 | L |
popularity model: model (beta=0.5, gamma=0.3, 1 wk of data)