NFL Pick'em 2026
week 5 · updated 2026-10-07 18:32 UTC · manual entry only
278
Season points
26 / 58
Rank
305.0
Leader
27.0
Deficit
mid
Regime · 1.93/wk
14
Weeks left
47%
P(top 3) · chalk
47%
best fade (not taken)
ALIVE
Survivor
Week 5 card mid regime
lines 2026-10-07 18:31 UTC · Sunday games lock 1:00 PM ET
Thursday 8:15 PM
TB @ DAL
81%locks Thu 10/08 8:15 PM
DAL
16
Sunday 9:30 AM
PHI @ JAX
77%locks Sun 10/11 9:30 AM
JAX
14
Sunday 1:00 PM
CHI @ GB
58%
CHI
5
CIN @ MIA
75%
CIN
13
CLE @ NYJ
55%
NYJ
2
HOU @ TEN
78%
HOU
15
IND @ PIT
57%
PIT
4
LV @ NE
64%
NE
11
MIN @ NO
55%
MIN
3
NYG @ WAS
64%
WAS
10
Sunday 4:05 PM
DEN @ LAC
63%
DEN
8
Sunday 4:25 PM
DET @ ARI
70%
DET
12
SF @ SEA
60%
SEA
7
Sunday 8:20 PM
BAL @ ATL
63%
ATL
9
Monday 8:15 PM
BUF @ LAR
60%
LAR
6
TB @ DAL
81%locks Thu 10/08 8:15 PM
DAL
16
HOU @ TEN
78%
HOU
15
PHI @ JAX
77%locks Sun 10/11 9:30 AM
JAX
14
CIN @ MIA
75%
CIN
13
DET @ ARI
70%
DET
12
LV @ NE
64%
NE
11
NYG @ WAS
64%
WAS
10
BAL @ ATL
63%
ATL
9
DEN @ LAC
63%
DEN
8
SF @ SEA
60%
SEA
7
BUF @ LAR
60%
LAR
6
CHI @ GB
58%
CHI
5
IND @ PIT
57%
PIT
4
MIN @ NO
55%
MIN
3
CLE @ NYJ
55%
NYJ
2
Flags
coin-flip conf 2 NYJ: favorite only 54.8%; near toss-up (swap allowed (outside top 12))
coin-flip conf 3 MIN: favorite only 54.8%; near toss-up (swap allowed (outside top 12))
early-lock conf 14 JAX: locks at kickoff Sun 10/11 9:30 AM ET (before the Sunday 1:00 PM ET deadline) (NO SWAP: top-12 protected slot)
early-lock conf 16 DAL: locks at kickoff Thu 10/08 8:15 PM ET (before the Sunday 1:00 PM ET deadline) (NO SWAP: top-12 protected slot)
Survivor ALIVE
DAL
DAL vs TB
81% to win · about 29% of the pool on them
Thu 10/08 8:15 PM ET
plan
wk6LAR69%
wk7HOU66%
wk8CIN68%
wk9SEA68%
wk10IND66%
wk11BUF75%
wk12MIN59%
wk13DEN72%
wk14DET71%
- DAL vs TB: win prob 80.7%, expected pool share on them 29% [model (beta=0.52, gamma=0.3, 2 wk of data)]
- if they win, ~73% of the pool survives -> equity +0.096 (log p - log surviving)
- burning DAL costs the future plan 0.000 (horizon: pool of 33 at 23%/wk attrition, weights fall to 0 around week 15)
- runner-up DET is -0.085 behind (log-equity units; -0.05 ≈ 5% less pool equity)
| team | opp | win | pool on | vs best | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | vs TB | 80.7% | 29% | +0.000 | |
| DET | @ ARI | 69.7% | 2% | -0.085 | |
| CIN | @ MIA | 74.8% | 13% | -0.091 | |
| HOU | @ TEN | 77.8% | 12% | -0.096 | |
| NE | vs LV | 63.9% | 2% | -0.162 | |
| WAS | vs NYG | 63.5% | 6% | -0.188 | |
| ATL | vs BAL | 63.4% | 5% | -0.188 | |
| SEA | vs SF | 60.3% | 1% | -0.244 |
Season points
Rank (lower is better)
Weekly results
| week | pts | W-L | rank | deficit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| wk1 | 96 | 10-6 | 35 | 17 |
| wk2 | 86 | 11-5 | 33 | 17 |
| wk3 | 75 | 8-8 | 36 | 24.0 |
| wk4 | 96 | 9-7 | 26 | 27.0 |
Points lost by confidence slot
Survivor — ALIVE
ARI
ATL
BAL
BUF
CAR
CHI
CIN
CLE
DAL
DEN
DET
GB
HOU
IND
JAX
KC
LAC
LAR
LV
MIA
MIN
NE
NO
NYG
NYJ
PHI
PIT
SEA
SF
TB
TEN
WAS
strikethrough = used · outlined = planned
| week | used |
|---|---|
| wk1 | JAX |
| wk2 | SF |
| wk3 | KC |
| wk4 | BAL |
Survivor season plan
| week | team | opp | p | P(pool running) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| wk6 | LAR | vs ARI | 69% | 1.00 |
| wk7 | HOU | vs NYG | 66% | 1.00 |
| wk8 | CIN | vs TEN | 68% | 1.00 |
| wk9 | SEA | vs ARI | 68% | 1.00 |
| wk10 | IND | vs MIA | 66% | 1.00 |
| wk11 | BUF | vs MIA | 75% | 1.00 |
| wk12 | MIN | vs ATL | 59% | 0.80 |
| wk13 | DEN | vs MIA | 72% | 0.39 |
| wk14 | DET | vs TEN | 71% | 0.07 |
Field picks — week 2 58 entries
5 of 16 games went against the pool's majority; 4 of 12 games with an 85%+ consensus lost.
| game | field pick | share | n | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO@BAL | BAL | 100% | 58/58 | field upset |
| PHI@TEN | PHI | 100% | 58/58 | chalk won |
| MIA@SF | SF | 100% | 58/58 | chalk won |
| CLE@TB | TB | 98% | 57/58 | field upset |
| DET@BUF | BUF | 97% | 56/58 | chalk won |
| MIN@CHI | CHI | 97% | 56/58 | field upset |
| PIT@NE | NE | 97% | 56/58 | chalk won |
| LV@LAC | LAC | 97% | 56/58 | field upset |
| IND@KC | KC | 97% | 56/58 | chalk won |
| SEA@ARI | SEA | 90% | 52/58 | chalk won |
| NYG@LAR | LAR | 90% | 52/58 | chalk won |
| WAS@DAL | DAL | 86% | 50/58 | chalk won |
| GB@NYJ | GB | 84% | 49/58 | chalk won |
| CAR@ATL | CAR | 76% | 44/58 | chalk won |
| CIN@HOU | HOU | 74% | 43/58 | field upset |
| JAX@DEN | DEN | 57% | 33/58 | chalk won |
Survivor pool
33 of 63 alive · attrition 23%/wk · planning horizon fades out by week 15
week 2 picks 27 eliminated
| team | picks | share | line | res |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB | 26 | 43.3% | -8.5 | L |
| SF | 12 | 20.0% | -13.5 | W |
| LAC | 6 | 10.0% | -6.5 | L |
| BAL | 4 | 6.7% | -8.5 | L |
| CAR | 3 | 5.0% | -2.5 | W |
| PHI | 2 | 3.3% | -7.0 | W |
| GB | 2 | 3.3% | -3.5 | W |
| DAL | 2 | 3.3% | -4.5 | W |
| BUF | 1 | 1.7% | -4.5 | W |
| CHI | 1 | 1.7% | -4.5 | L |
| KC | 1 | 1.7% | -6.5 | W |
popularity model: model (beta=0.52, gamma=0.3, 2 wk of data)