NFL Pick'em 2026

week 3 · updated 2026-09-23 16:15 UTC · manual entry only

182
Season points
33 / 58
Rank
199
Leader
17
Deficit
chalk
Regime · 1.06/wk
16
Weeks left
34%
P(top 3) · chalk
ALIVE
Survivor

Week 3 card chalk regime

lines 2026-09-23 16:15 UTC · Sunday games lock 1:00 PM ET

Thursday 8:15 PM
ATL @ GB
71%locks Thu 09/24 8:15 PM
GB
11
Sunday 1:00 PM
CAR @ CLE
58%
CAR
5
CIN @ PIT
64%
CIN
9
HOU @ IND
58%
HOU
4
KC @ MIA
87%
KC
16
LAC @ BUF
76%
BUF
14
NE @ JAX
59%
JAX
6
NYJ @ DET
74%
DET
12
SEA @ WAS
75%
SEA
13
TEN @ NYG
57%
NYG
3
Sunday 4:05 PM
ARI @ SF
80%
SF
15
MIN @ TB
53%
MIN
1
Sunday 4:25 PM
BAL @ DAL
62%
BAL
8
LV @ NO
62%
NO
7
Sunday 8:20 PM
LAR @ DEN
57%
LAR
2
Monday 8:15 PM
PHI @ CHI
68%
PHI
10
KC @ MIA
87%
KC
16
ARI @ SF
80%
SF
15
LAC @ BUF
76%
BUF
14
SEA @ WAS
75%
SEA
13
NYJ @ DET
74%
DET
12
ATL @ GB
71%locks Thu 09/24 8:15 PM
GB
11
PHI @ CHI
68%
PHI
10
CIN @ PIT
64%
CIN
9
BAL @ DAL
62%
BAL
8
LV @ NO
62%
NO
7
NE @ JAX
59%
JAX
6
CAR @ CLE
58%
CAR
5
HOU @ IND
58%
HOU
4
TEN @ NYG
57%
NYG
3
LAR @ DEN
57%
LAR
2
MIN @ TB
53%
MIN
1

Flags

coin-flip conf 1 MIN: favorite only 53.0%; near toss-up (swap allowed (outside top 12))
early-lock conf 11 GB: locks at kickoff Thu 09/24 8:15 PM ET (before the Sunday 1:00 PM ET deadline) (NO SWAP: top-12 protected slot)

Survivor ALIVE

KC
KC @ MIA
87% to win · about 27% of the pool on them
Sun 09/27 1:00 PM ET
plan
wk4BAL71%
wk5NE64%
wk6LAR70%
wk7HOU64%
wk8CIN65%
wk9PHI68%
wk10IND64%
wk11BUF74%
wk12MIN61%
  • KC @ MIA: win prob 87.2%, expected pool share on them 27% [model (beta=0.54, gamma=0.35, 2 wk of data)]
  • if they win, ~71% of the pool survives -> equity +0.208 (log p - log surviving)
  • burning KC costs the future plan 0.032 (horizon: pool of 33 at 23%/wk attrition, weights fall to 0 around week 13)
  • runner-up SEA is -0.097 behind (log-equity units; -0.05 ≈ 5% less pool equity)
teamoppwinpool onsurvive if winfuture costvs best
KC@ MIA87.2%27%71%0.032+0.000
SEA@ WAS74.7%6%69%0.000-0.097
DETvs NYJ73.8%5%69%0.000-0.102
BUFvs LAC76.3%5%69%0.041-0.114
GBvs ATL70.8%4%69%0.000-0.147
PHI@ CHI68.0%1%68%0.000-0.175
CIN@ PIT63.8%2%68%0.016-0.263
NOvs LV62.1%7%70%0.000-0.294

Season points

96121.75147.5173.25199wk1wk2me wk1: 96me wk2: 182meleader wk1: 113leader wk2: 199leader

Rank (lower is better)

19.51826.535wk1wk2rank wk1: 35rank wk2: 33rank

Weekly results

weekptsW-Llostrankdeficitregime
wk19610-6403517chalk
wk28611-5503317chalk

Points lost by confidence slot

0481216conf 16: 16 pts lost over 1 miss(es)1616conf 15: 15 pts lost over 1 miss(es)1515conf 14: 14 pts lost over 1 miss(es)1414conf 13: 0 pts lost over 0 miss(es)13conf 12: 0 pts lost over 0 miss(es)12conf 11: 11 pts lost over 1 miss(es)1111conf 10: 10 pts lost over 1 miss(es)1010conf 9: 0 pts lost over 0 miss(es)9conf 8: 8 pts lost over 1 miss(es)88conf 7: 0 pts lost over 0 miss(es)7conf 6: 0 pts lost over 0 miss(es)6conf 5: 5 pts lost over 1 miss(es)55conf 4: 4 pts lost over 1 miss(es)44conf 3: 3 pts lost over 1 miss(es)33conf 2: 4 pts lost over 2 miss(es)24conf 1: 0 pts lost over 0 miss(es)1

Survivor — ALIVE

ARI
ATL
BAL
BUF
CAR
CHI
CIN
CLE
DAL
DEN
DET
GB
HOU
IND
JAX
KC
LAC
LAR
LV
MIA
MIN
NE
NO
NYG
NYJ
PHI
PIT
SEA
SF
TB
TEN
WAS

strikethrough = used · outlined = planned

weekused
wk1JAX
wk2SF

Survivor season plan

weekteamopppP(pool running)
wk4BALvs TEN71%1.00
wk5NEvs LV64%1.00
wk6LARvs ARI70%1.00
wk7HOUvs NYG64%1.00
wk8CINvs TEN65%1.00
wk9PHIvs NYG68%1.00
wk10INDvs MIA64%0.80
wk11BUFvs MIA74%0.39
wk12MINvs ATL61%0.07

Field picks — week 2 58 entries

5 of 16 games went against the pool's majority; 4 of 12 games with an 85%+ consensus lost.

gamefield picksharenresult
NO@BALBAL100%58/58field upset
PHI@TENPHI100%58/58chalk won
MIA@SFSF100%58/58chalk won
CLE@TBTB98%57/58field upset
DET@BUFBUF97%56/58chalk won
MIN@CHICHI97%56/58field upset
PIT@NENE97%56/58chalk won
LV@LACLAC97%56/58field upset
IND@KCKC97%56/58chalk won
SEA@ARISEA90%52/58chalk won
NYG@LARLAR90%52/58chalk won
WAS@DALDAL86%50/58chalk won
GB@NYJGB84%49/58chalk won
CAR@ATLCAR76%44/58chalk won
CIN@HOUHOU74%43/58field upset
JAX@DENDEN57%33/58chalk won

Survivor pool

33 of 63 alive · attrition 23%/wk · planning horizon fades out by week 13

week 2 picks 27 eliminated

teampickssharelineres
TB2643.3%-8.5L
SF1220.0%-13.5W
LAC610.0%-6.5L
BAL46.7%-8.5L
CAR35.0%-2.5W
PHI23.3%-7.0W
GB23.3%-3.5W
DAL23.3%-4.5W
BUF11.7%-4.5W
CHI11.7%-4.5L
KC11.7%-6.5W

popularity model: model (beta=0.54, gamma=0.35, 2 wk of data)