NFL Pick'em 2026 — season dashboard
generated 2026-09-16T05:37:58+00:00 · week 2 · manual entry only (see docs/tos-review.md)
96
Season points
35 / 58
Rank
113
Leader
17
Deficit
chalk (1.00/wk)
Regime
17
Weeks left
ALIVE
Survivor
Season points
Rank (lower is better)
Weekly results
| week | pts | W-L | lost | rank | deficit | regime |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| wk1 | 96 | 10-6 | 40 | 35 | 17 | chalk |
Points lost by confidence slot
Survivor — ALIVE
ARI
ATL
BAL
BUF
CAR
CHI
CIN
CLE
DAL
DEN
DET
GB
HOU
IND
JAX
KC
LAC
LAR
LV
MIA
MIN
NE
NO
NYG
NYJ
PHI
PIT
SEA
SF
TB
TEN
WAS
strikethrough = used · outlined = planned
| week | used |
|---|---|
| wk1 | JAX |
Survivor season plan
| week | team | opp | p | P(pool running) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| wk3 | DET | vs NYJ | 68% | 1.00 |
| wk4 | BAL | vs TEN | 70% | 1.00 |
| wk5 | NE | vs LV | 65% | 1.00 |
| wk6 | LAR | vs ARI | 69% | 1.00 |
| wk7 | HOU | vs NYG | 62% | 1.00 |
| wk8 | PIT | vs CLE | 64% | 1.00 |
| wk9 | KC | vs NYJ | 69% | 1.00 |
| wk10 | IND | vs MIA | 63% | 1.00 |
| wk11 | BUF | vs MIA | 72% | 1.00 |
| wk12 | CIN | vs NO | 61% | 1.00 |
| wk13 | DEN | vs MIA | 69% | 0.67 |
| wk14 | SEA | vs NYG | 66% | 0.35 |
| wk15 | GB | vs MIA | 67% | 0.10 |
Field picks — week 1 58 entries
4 of 16 games went against the pool's majority; 3 of 11 games with an 85%+ consensus lost.
| game | field pick | share | n | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE@JAX | JAX | 98% | 57/58 | chalk won |
| NO@DET | DET | 98% | 57/58 | chalk won |
| ARI@LAC | LAC | 97% | 56/58 | field upset |
| WAS@PHI | PHI | 97% | 56/58 | chalk won |
| ATL@PIT | PIT | 95% | 55/58 | chalk won |
| CHI@CAR | CHI | 93% | 54/58 | chalk won |
| MIA@LV | LV | 93% | 54/58 | chalk won |
| SF@LAR | LAR | 93% | 52/56 | field upset |
| BAL@IND | BAL | 91% | 53/58 | chalk won |
| DAL@NYG | DAL | 86% | 50/58 | field upset |
| NE@SEA | SEA | 86% | 48/56 | chalk won |
| TB@CIN | CIN | 84% | 49/58 | chalk won |
| BUF@HOU | BUF | 81% | 47/58 | chalk won |
| NYJ@TEN | TEN | 71% | 41/58 | field upset |
| DEN@KC | KC | 55% | 32/58 | chalk won |
| GB@MIN | MIN | 53% | 31/58 | chalk won |
Survivor pool
50 of 63 alive · attrition 19%/wk · planning horizon fades out by week 16
week 1 picks 13 eliminated
| team | picks | share | line | res |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JAX | 18 | 28.6% | -8.5 | W |
| DET | 10 | 15.9% | -6.5 | W |
| LAC | 8 | 12.7% | -9.5 | L |
| PIT | 8 | 12.7% | -5.5 | W |
| LV | 7 | 11.1% | -3.0 | W |
| TEN | 4 | 6.3% | -1.5 | L |
| PHI | 3 | 4.8% | -5.5 | W |
| MIN | 1 | 1.6% | -1.5 | W |
| CIN | 1 | 1.6% | -3.5 | W |
| SEA | 1 | 1.6% | -3.5 | W |
| NYJ | 1 | 1.6% | +1.5 | W |
| NO | 1 | 1.6% | +6.5 | L |
popularity model: model (beta=0.5, gamma=0.3, 1 wk of data)
Week 2 card chalk regime
generated 2026-09-16T05:36:50+00:00 · odds: the-odds-api
| conf | pick | opp | win% | spread | kickoff | res |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | SF | vs MIA | 89.4% | -13.5 | Sun 09/20 4:25 PM ET | |
| 15 | TB | vs CLE | 79.8% | -8.5 | Sun 09/20 1:00 PM ET | |
| 14 | BAL | vs NO | 79.7% | -8.5 | Sun 09/20 1:00 PM ET | |
| 13 | LAR | vs NYG | 76.0% | -7.0 | Mon 09/21 8:15 PM ET | |
| 12 | PHI | @ TEN | 75.8% | -7.0 | Sun 09/20 1:00 PM ET | |
| 11 | LAC | vs LV | 74.6% | -7.0 | Sun 09/20 4:05 PM ET | |
| 10 | KC | vs IND | 74.1% | -6.5 | Sun 09/20 8:20 PM ET | |
| 9 | CHI | vs MIN | 69.1% | -5.5 | Sun 09/20 1:00 PM ET | |
| 8 | NE | vs PIT | 69.0% | -5.5 | Sun 09/20 1:00 PM ET | |
| 7 | BUF | vs DET | 67.6% | -4.5 | Thu 09/17 8:15 PM ET | |
| 6 | SEA | @ ARI | 66.4% | -4.5 | Sun 09/20 4:25 PM ET | |
| 5 | DAL | vs WAS | 66.3% | -4.0 | Sun 09/20 4:25 PM ET | |
| 4 | GB | @ NYJ | 65.2% | -3.5 | Sun 09/20 1:00 PM ET | |
| 3 | DEN | vs JAX | 57.9% | -2.5 | Sun 09/20 4:05 PM ET | |
| 2 | HOU | vs CIN | 57.8% | -2.5 | Sun 09/20 1:00 PM ET | |
| 1 | CAR | @ ATL | 57.4% | -2.5 | Sun 09/20 1:00 PM ET |
Flags
early-lock conf 7 BUF: locks at kickoff Thu 09/17 8:15 PM ET (before the Sunday 1:00 PM ET deadline) (NO SWAP: top-12 protected slot)
line-move conf 16 SF: pick prob moved +7.1% since last snapshot, home spread -1.0 (NO SWAP: top-12 protected slot)
Survivor
Survivor pick: SF vs MIA — 89.4% win, ~24% of the pool expected on them
- SF vs MIA: win prob 89.4%, expected pool share on them 24% [model (beta=0.5, gamma=0.3, 1 wk of data)]
- if they win, ~75% of the pool survives -> equity +0.172 (log p - log surviving)
- burning SF costs the future plan 0.000 (horizon: pool of 50 at 19%/wk attrition, weights fall to 0 around week 16)
- runner-up TB is -0.135 behind (log-equity units; -0.05 ≈ 5% less pool equity)
| team | opp | win | pool on | survive if win | future cost | vs best | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF | vs MIA | 89.4% | 24% | 75% | 0.000 | +0.000 | |
| TB | vs CLE | 79.8% | 21% | 77% | 0.000 | -0.135 | |
| PHI | @ TEN | 75.8% | 4% | 73% | 0.000 | -0.141 | |
| LAC | vs LV | 74.6% | 7% | 74% | 0.000 | -0.168 | |
| LAR | vs NYG | 76.0% | 3% | 73% | 0.038 | -0.176 | |
| BAL | vs NO | 79.7% | 9% | 75% | 0.072 | -0.178 | |
| KC | vs IND | 74.1% | 4% | 74% | 0.037 | -0.204 | |
| CHI | vs MIN | 69.1% | 4% | 74% | 0.000 | -0.239 |