NFL Pick'em 2026
week 10 · updated 2026-11-12 23:51 UTC · manual entry only
735
Season points
39 / 58
Rank
816.0
Leader
81.0
Deficit
mid
Regime · 9.00/wk
9
Weeks left
2%
P(top 3) · chalk
4%
P(top 3) · swaps, 2 EV/wk
3%
best fade (not taken)
ELIMINATED
Survivor
Week 10 card mid regime
lines 2026-11-12 23:51 UTC · Sunday games lock 1:00 PM ET
Thursday 8:15 PM
WAS @ NYG
53%locks Thu 11/12 8:15 PM
NYG
3
Sunday 9:30 AM
NE @ DET
58%locks Sun 11/15 9:30 AM
DET
13
Sunday 1:00 PM
BUF @ NYJ
80%
BUF
14
CAR @ NO
56%
NO
6
HOU @ CLE
68%
HOU
9
JAX @ TEN
84%
JAX
16
KC @ ATL
63%
KC
11
MIA @ IND
66%
IND
12
MIN @ GB
59%
GB
4
Sunday 4:05 PM
LAR @ ARI
81%
LAR
15
SEA @ LV
73%
SEA
5
Sunday 4:25 PM
SF @ DAL
66%
SF
8
Sunday 8:20 PM
PIT @ CIN
63%
CIN
10
Monday 8:15 PM
LAC @ BAL
67%
BAL
7
JAX @ TEN
84%
JAX
16
LAR @ ARI
81%
LAR
15
BUF @ NYJ
80%
BUF
14
NE @ DET
58%locks Sun 11/15 9:30 AM
DET
13
MIA @ IND
66%
IND
12
KC @ ATL
63%
KC
11
PIT @ CIN
63%
CIN
10
HOU @ CLE
68%
HOU
9
SF @ DAL
66%
SF
8
LAC @ BAL
67%
BAL
7
CAR @ NO
56%
NO
6
SEA @ LV
73%
SEA
5
MIN @ GB
59%
GB
4
WAS @ NYG
53%locks Thu 11/12 8:15 PM
NYG
3
Flags
early-lock conf 3 NYG: locks at kickoff Thu 11/12 8:15 PM ET (before the Sunday 1:00 PM ET deadline) (swap allowed (outside top 12))
coin-flip conf 3 NYG: favorite only 53.2%; near toss-up (swap allowed (outside top 12))
early-lock conf 13 DET: locks at kickoff Sun 11/15 9:30 AM ET (before the Sunday 1:00 PM ET deadline) (NO SWAP: top-12 protected slot)
Survivor ELIMINATED
OUT
Eliminated in week 5
DAL lost · picks used: wk1 JAX, wk2 SF, wk3 KC, wk4 BAL, wk5 DAL
Season points
Rank (lower is better)
Weekly results
| week | pts | W-L | rank | deficit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| wk1 | 96 | 10-6 | 35 | 17 |
| wk2 | 86 | 11-5 | 33 | 17 |
| wk3 | 75 | 8-8 | 36 | 24.0 |
| wk4 | 96 | 9-7 | 26 | 27.0 |
| wk5 | 85 | 9-5-1 | 27 | 40.0 |
| wk6 | 80 | 9-5 | 23 | 52.0 |
| wk7 | 87 | 9-5 | 13 | 46.0 |
| wk8 | 106 | 10-4 | 13 | 45.0 |
| wk9 | 99 | 12-3 | 39 | 81.0 |
Points lost by confidence slot
Survivor — ELIMINATED
ARI
ATL
BAL
BUF
CAR
CHI
CIN
CLE
DAL
DEN
DET
GB
HOU
IND
JAX
KC
LAC
LAR
LV
MIA
MIN
NE
NO
NYG
NYJ
PHI
PIT
SEA
SF
TB
TEN
WAS
strikethrough = used · outlined = planned
| week | used |
|---|---|
| wk1 | JAX |
| wk2 | SF |
| wk3 | KC |
| wk4 | BAL |
| wk5 | DAL |
Survivor season plan
| week | team | opp | p | P(pool running) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| wk6 | LAR | vs ARI | 69% | 1.00 |
| wk7 | HOU | vs NYG | 66% | 1.00 |
| wk8 | CIN | vs TEN | 67% | 1.00 |
| wk9 | SEA | vs ARI | 68% | 1.00 |
| wk10 | IND | vs MIA | 66% | 1.00 |
| wk11 | BUF | vs MIA | 75% | 1.00 |
| wk12 | MIN | vs ATL | 59% | 0.80 |
| wk13 | DEN | vs MIA | 72% | 0.39 |
| wk14 | DET | vs TEN | 71% | 0.07 |
Field picks — week 2 58 entries
5 of 16 games went against the pool's majority; 4 of 12 games with an 85%+ consensus lost.
| game | field pick | share | n | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO@BAL | BAL | 100% | 58/58 | field upset |
| PHI@TEN | PHI | 100% | 58/58 | chalk won |
| MIA@SF | SF | 100% | 58/58 | chalk won |
| CLE@TB | TB | 98% | 57/58 | field upset |
| DET@BUF | BUF | 97% | 56/58 | chalk won |
| MIN@CHI | CHI | 97% | 56/58 | field upset |
| PIT@NE | NE | 97% | 56/58 | chalk won |
| LV@LAC | LAC | 97% | 56/58 | field upset |
| IND@KC | KC | 97% | 56/58 | chalk won |
| SEA@ARI | SEA | 90% | 52/58 | chalk won |
| NYG@LAR | LAR | 90% | 52/58 | chalk won |
| WAS@DAL | DAL | 86% | 50/58 | chalk won |
| GB@NYJ | GB | 84% | 49/58 | chalk won |
| CAR@ATL | CAR | 76% | 44/58 | chalk won |
| CIN@HOU | HOU | 74% | 43/58 | field upset |
| JAX@DEN | DEN | 57% | 33/58 | chalk won |
Survivor pool
33 of 63 alive · attrition 23%/wk · planning horizon fades out by week 15
week 2 picks 27 eliminated
| team | picks | share | line | res |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB | 26 | 43.3% | -8.5 | L |
| SF | 12 | 20.0% | -13.5 | W |
| LAC | 6 | 10.0% | -6.5 | L |
| BAL | 4 | 6.7% | -8.5 | L |
| CAR | 3 | 5.0% | -2.5 | W |
| PHI | 2 | 3.3% | -7.0 | W |
| GB | 2 | 3.3% | -3.5 | W |
| DAL | 2 | 3.3% | -4.5 | W |
| BUF | 1 | 1.7% | -4.5 | W |
| CHI | 1 | 1.7% | -4.5 | L |
| KC | 1 | 1.7% | -6.5 | W |
popularity model: model (beta=0.52, gamma=0.3, 2 wk of data)